Vancouver Sun - Metro Vancouver Population to Hit Three Million - January 20, 2024

For many reasons, the Vancouver Sun's John Mackie is one of my favourite journalists. I appreciate his interest in the history of the city and I always look forward to his Saturday historical accounts. He's also a delightful guy to talk with. So I was pleased when he called this week to ask what I thought about Vancouver's population reaching three million this summer. 

My first thought was to tell him about Jas Johal's special program on CKNW at the end of last year titled 'The Next Million' which examined how Vancouver is going to manage going from three million to four million residents. So that was how I started our discussion. Here's the article that appeared in today's paper.

Metro Vancouver will top three million residents by July 1, according to a population projection by B.C. Stats.

Hitting three million is a milestone for the region, which stretches from Lions Bay to Langley and includes 23 municipalities. But planner/real estate consultant Michael Geller says it isn’t that big in a deal, in and of itself.

"Going from 2.9 to 3.0 million to my mind is not that significant," said Geller. "But how we accommodate the next million, that's significant." The provincial government has already taken a dramatic step with its so-called density legislation, which allows several units on former single-family lots and much higher density around “transit-oriented development” sites near SkyTrain stations and bus loops.

“But under the provincial proposal they’re now talking about significantly higher buildings, at significantly higher densities.“If you need an illustration, just take the intersection of Dunbar and 41st, which is basically surrounded by single family houses and two-storey commercial buildings,” said Geller.

“It’s a bus loop rather than a SkyTrain, but they’re (still) talking about 12 storey buildings, what they call a floor space ratio of four, which is sort of six times the current (zoning).

“The question is, what kind of sewer and water capacity do we have to accommodate that?”
Putting in the infrastructure will be expensive, but necessary.

“I think the key thing is the rate of change and the pace of development,” said Geller.

“To a certain agree, the thought of dramatically increasing the density is a bit overwhelming. (But) it won’t happen if the sewer and water capacity isn’t there.”

Planner Andy Yan said one of the big questions with Metro Vancouver’s population boom is where people will live.

“The issue isn’t just the number (of residents), it’s how is it distributed throughout the region,” said Yan, director of the City Program at Simon Fraser University.

“Some people think (growth) should all be piled into the city of Vancouver. But if you look at what is probably the most sustainable, the most equitable means of development, it is actually spread out throughout the region, in terms of the regional growth strategy.

“Vancouver is just part of a constellation of communities throughout the region.”

B.C. Stats hasn’t done a press release about Metro reaching three million — the official release won’t be until July 1. But if you look at the “population app” on the B.C. Stats website, it projects it will be 3,021,372 on July 1. This is up from 2.935 million on July 1, 2023.

Metro hit one million residents in 1970 and two million in 1999. It took another 25 years to reach three million. B.C. Stats projects Metro will hit four million in 2041, which is in 17 years.

According to the projection, Vancouver is still the largest city in the region, with an estimated population of 737,216 in 2024, up from 722,014 in 2023.

But Surrey is catching up, with an estimated 2024 population of 684,485, up from 659,126 in 2023. If the population projections by B.C. Stats are right, Surrey will surpass Vancouver in population in 2029, when Surrey’s estimated population will be 785,619 and Vancouver will be 780,075.

Yan notes that Surrey is three times the physical size of Vancouver, so it makes sense Surrey will soon have Metro’s largest population. Physically, the city of Vancouver is only four per cent of Metro, but has over 24 per cent of the population. But Vancouver’s share of the population has been declining as the Metro population grows: In 1971 it was 42 per cent.

According to the B.C. Stats projections, Burnaby will have 286,086 residents by July 1, followed by Richmond at 233,999. Coquitlam will have a population of 174,291, the District of Langley 153,360, and Delta 118,320.

Maple Ridge is projected to have 102,450 people, the District of North Vancouver will have 96,647, and New Westminster 91,167. Port Coquitlam will be 68,265, the City of North Vancouver will be 66,729, and West Vancouver 46,743

Port Moody’s population will rise to 40,867, the City of Langley will be 32,259, White Rock will be 22,623 and Pitt Meadows 21,473. There will also be 34,474 people living in “unincorporated” areas in Metro Vancouver.

The smallest communities in Metro are Bowen Island, with 4,265 residents, Anmore with 2,586, Lions Bay with 1,338, and Belcarra with 729.

Cities near, but outside Metro, continue to grow as well. Abbotsford is projected to have a population of 180,324, Chilliwack 103,468, and Squamish 25,370.

The total population in British Columbia is projected to be 5,646,803 on July 1, up from 5,490,376 in 2023. The provincial population is projected to top six million in 2028, and seven million in 2038.

jmackie@postmedia.com

Downtown Vancouver, B.C. as seen from city hall on Sept. 28, 2023. PHOTO BY JASON PAYNE /PNG