What will happen to housing in 2022? Lets start with my 2012 Vancouver Sun predictions.

 

Over the past 10 years I have written annual outlooks in Vancouver Sun West Coast Homes. I looked at planning and real estate trends, housing prices, and other forecasts. On re-reading these articles, I have found that I am often wrong, but also right in terms of what might happen. However, I was always wrong on timing. Below are excerpts from earlier year-end outlook columns

2012 https://vancouversun.com/opinion/op-ed/housing-transportation-will-be-hot-topics

In December 2012 I listed 10 things to be expected in 2013 (in alphabetical order)

Car sharing and reduced parking requirements. Just as fax machines gained popularity as more people acquired them, I predicted increased interest in car-sharing. This would allow municipalities to reduce minimum parking requirements with the attendant benefits of greater affordability, reduced congestion and pollution.

Depreciation Reports. I anticipated that the new requirement for every condominium to complete a depreciation report would result in some owners discovering the cost of repairs was greater than the value of the improvements, with a call upon government for assistance.

Fee-simple row houses. As a result of a legislative change related to party-wall agreements, I predicted an increased interest in individually owned rowhouses. I was wrong.

Laneway and coach house programs. With the success of the Vancouver program, other municipalities would introduce similar programs, but with greater flexibility to preserve smaller, older homes.

Micro suites. The success of projects in Vancouver and Surrey, combined with reduced parking requirements, will encourage other municipalities to reduce minimum suite sizes to allow smaller units for sale and rent.

Modular housing. I hoped for renewed interest in my 2009 BC Housing Study on how modular units could be set up on vacant land for the homeless, to be relocated to other sites at a later date.

Regeneration of older social housing. While awaiting a construction start on Little Mountain, I anticipated reviews of other older public and social housing projects.

Replacement Rental Housing. As older rental projects deteriorated, I predicted that housing experts would call on provincial and municipal governments to establish policies to require replacement rental housing in new projects.

Smaller housing on smaller lots. Given downsizing empty-nesters' desire for alternatives to rowhouses and apartments, some small house infill developments would get underway.

Transit funding. Discussion on this 'hot' 2012 topic would continue, with many believing a comprehensive user-pay system was preferable to selective bridge tolls and property tax funding.

I noted that none of these ideas were new. However increased interest in more sustainable lifestyles would give greater currency to ideas previously considered just fads. While 10 years later car-share has increased in popularity (notwithstanding the demise of Car2Go); reduced parking standards are in the news; condo depreciation reports have led to redevelopment properties; and replacement rental requirements are now in place, other expectations are still not happening. But they will!