Wednesday, December 22, 2021

What will happen in 2022? Let's first look at my 2013 Vancouver Sun predictions

In this forecast I again focussed on an expectation that alternative forms of housing found in other world cities, would become more popular in Vancouver. 

Fee-simple rowhouses. In another effort to promote this form of housing, I again put it near the top of the list of what we could expect. I thought the requirement for Condominium Depreciation Reports would increase homeowners' interest in alternatives to strata living. Again I was wrong1

Smaller detached homes, duplexes and coach houses. Again, I anticipated increased interest in these forms of housing. While I was right about duplexes and coach houses, I was wrong on my timing.

Stacked townhouses. I predicted greater interest in this form of housing that was common elsewhere but not so much in Vancouver.

Six-storey woodframe apartment buildings. Although it had been four years since the B.C. Building Code had been amended to allow an increase from 4 storeys to 6 storeys, the development industry had been slow to respond. However, with increasing municipal support for more intensive land use along arterials, strong demand for rental housing and affordable ownership, developers were likely to embrace this in the coming year. Eventually I was right!

Mid-rise buildings. Given growing public concerns about highrise, I expected planners to promote midrise buildings 8 to 10 storeys high, along with some 12 storey apartments similar to Kerrisdale. 

Garden cottages. Noting the popularity of laneway housing, I forecast that some municipalities would allow laneway housing on lots without lanes. I called them 'garden cottages', a term used in Washington State. I also hoped laneway units would be allowed to be sold as well as rented.

Floating homes. Noting there had been increased interest in modular and container housing in the past year, I forecast interest in another innovation - floating homes. While I admit this was more aspirational than a genuine expectation, we have seen increased interest in the floating home community at Mosquito Creek in North Vancouver. I still think this will become more popular if government regulations allow.

More interesting housing designs. Noting the public's dissatisfaction with the proliferation of grey and green glass towers, I forecasted that developers would tempt new homebuyers with more interesting shaped buildings, greater use of colour, and landscaping on roofs.

House prices. To those waiting for declining house prices, I told them not to hold their breath. As the region becomes more attractive, we can expect more immigrants and boomers from other parts of Canada, thus keeping prices high.

Highrises vs. Gentle Densification. While one way to ensure supply keeps up with demand is to build more highrises, I proposed a greater focus on gentle densification. Unfortunately, it appears few developers read my column!

5 comments:

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