I was pleased to once again be invited to share some predictions re: the Vancouver housing market in the coming year. I think this is about the fourth time I've done this, and one of these years I may get something right! Read on.
Each year around this time, I am often asked what will happen to Vancouver's
new-home market in the coming year. I always give the same answer: one cannot
generalize about this since there are so many markets, differentiated by
location, type of housing and type of buyer.
Having said that, I would like to offer a few observations and predictions
of what might lie ahead.
In 2014, we can expect some locations and housing forms to be over-built,
while others will not keep up with demand. Potentially controversial projects
are likely to be put on hold, especially in the latter months, since this is a
municipal election year.
However, alternative forms of housing common in other cities around the
world are likely to become more popular in Vancouver.
For example, we can expect increased interest in individually-owned row
houses that are not part of a condominium building, for the following reasons:
Many people downsizing from a single-family house are not yet ready for condo
living, but are seeking the outdoor spaces and other amenities that a row house
can offer.
Many municipal planners consider row houses to be a higher-density form of
housing that can fit nicely within single-family neighbourhoods.
By Dec. 13, most B.C. strata corporations had to prepare depreciation
reports setting out how they planned to finance the repair and maintenance of
their condominiums' common property. Since owners of many older projects will
likely have to pay special assessment fees, there is likely to be increased
interest in alternatives to condominium living.
In 2014, we may start to see more developments comprising smaller detached
homes, duplexes and coach houses. The demand for this type of housing is
greater than ever, as evidenced by the success of "pocket
neighbourhood" developments in the Pacific Northwest and of cottage-style
infill developments in and around Metro.
Since many municipal planners and politicians now seem to be more accepting
of lower density alternatives to single family housing, expect more.
Next year, highrise buildings will continue to rise higher and higher,
especially in urban centres and near important transit stations. However, in
many neighbourhoods, community opposition will compel developers to pursue
alternative forms of higher-density housing.
I anticipate more Toronto-style "stacked townhomes", especially in
locations that appeal to younger buyers. While this form of housing requires
many stairs, stacked towns, as they are sometimes called, can offer greater affordability.
An additional attraction is that each home has its own front door to the
street. Since the city of Vancouver and other municipalities are encouraging
this type of housing in new neighbourhood plans, expect it to gain popularity
in the coming year.
Also look out for six-storey wood-frame apartments. Although it has been
four years since the B.C. Building Code was amended to allow taller wood-frame
construction, the development industry has been slow to respond. However, with
increasing municipal support for more intensive land use, especially along
arterial roads, and strong demand for rental housing and affordable home
ownership, developers are likely to embrace this building type in the new year.
In many municipalities, planners will more aggressively promote
European-style mid-rise developments up to eight or 10 storeys, similar to
those being built along Cambie Street. This form of housing has not generally
been popular in Vancouver, due in part to higher construction costs when
compared to low-rise wood-frame or highrise construction. However, as mid-rise
development becomes more common, construction costs will likely come down as
they have in other cities.
In some locations, expect to see highrise buildings capped at 12 storeys.
This is the height limit in Kerrisdale Village, and many architects and
planners believe that with good landscaping, well-designed towers at this
height can fit in with townhouses, low-rise apartments and nearby single-family
neighbourhoods.
In 2013, laneway housing gained in popularity along Vancouver's lanes. In
the coming year, expect other municipalities to also approve coach houses and
backyard cottages on single-family properties that may not have a lane.
Hopefully, some municipalities will allow these smaller houses to be sold, as
well as rented, especially when located on corner lots.
Last year, we saw considerable interest in container and modular housing,
and this is likely to continue. However, we could also see another innovative
housing form - floating homes. A new floating home community was approved in
Delta in 2013 and anyone who has been to Amsterdam knows that this can be a
most attractive form of housing.
Regardless of the location or form of housing, one thing we can expect in
the coming year is more interesting and innovative architectural designs. Many
Vancouverites have become tired of what they see as standardized plans and
repetitive, boring grey and green towers. They want more interesting shapes, a
greater use of colour and materials, and more landscaping on the sides and
roofs of buildings. Expect developers and their architects to tempt new-home
buyers with more exciting designs.
Finally, to those hoping the coming year will bring declining home prices,
do not hold your breath. As our region becomes increasingly attractive and
livable, expect a continued influx of immigrants from around the world and
aging baby boomers from other parts of Canada.
While we would like to think that Vancouver can be both livable and
affordable, the reality is that the more attractive our region becomes, the
less likely it is that home prices will fall. One thing we must do is ensure
new housing supply keeps up with increased demand.
One way to achieve this is by building more highrises. However, I believe a
better solution is a more gentle approach to densification, one with a broader
range of housing choices, especially in older single-family neighbourhoods
close to transit and amenities.
Time will tell whether my predictions will be right. In the meanwhile, best
wishes for a happy, healthy and livable 2014.
Michael Geller is a Vancouver architect, planner, real estate consultant and
developer - and a frequent contributor to Westcoast Homes. He can be reached at
geller@sfu.ca.
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In 1952 my family came to Canada via New York on the Queen Mary. So I was delighted to learn that the ship hosts a very large New Year's Eve party every year. This year is special since 2014 is the 80th anniversary of the ship's first sailing. You can read all the details here http://www.queenmary.com/events/new-years-eve.php
