Vancouver Sun: How B.C. real estate is shaping up for the year ahead. December 20, 2025

During the past year, I was often asked what I thought would happen to Vancouver’s housing market. My response was simple. There is no Vancouver housing market.

There is a downtown highrise market which differs from the Fraser Valley townhouse market. Similarly, there are rental housing markets and ownership markets catering to first-time buyers, move-up buyers and last-time buyers.

That said, industry associations and experts often generalize about overall sales, housing starts and prices.

At the end of 2024, the B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA) predicted realtors would enjoy a 13 per cent sales jump in 2025 driven by lower mortgage rates and government policies. Prices were expected to rise modestly.

However, due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs announced in early February, it soon became apparent sales were falling far short of expectations and BCREA revised its outlook.

It is now estimated that 2025 will be the year during which the Lower Mainland experienced the lowest number of home sales this century.

While home sales dropped off significantly here, it was even worse in Toronto. In October, only twenty-five new condominiums were sold in the city. To put this in perspective, it is less than the number of players on the unforgettable Toronto Blue Jays baseball team.

Trump’s tariffs also impacted new housing starts. In January 2025, MLA Canada, one of B.C.’s most successful project marketing firms, predicted 125 condominium projects would launch across the Lower Mainland.

However, by year end, MLA tracked only forty-nine launches, sixty per cent below their forecast and only half the Lower Mainland’s ten-year average. However, some of these were subsequently put on hold or converted to rental.

MLA has not issued a 2026 forecast. However, it expects that the coming year could look a lot like last year. For one thing, investors are almost non-existent due to declining rents and a plethora of government policies that discourage investment.

Furthermore, Rennie Intelligence, estimates there could be 3,400 completed and unsold condominiums on the market by year end, and many more thousands still under construction but not yet sold.

In 2026, thousands of purpose-built rental units are also scheduled for completion which could further bring down rents. While this is good news for renters, it is bad news for developers.

Dozens of other condominium and rental projects have approvals in place but are not proceeding since they are no longer financially viable. This is due to a low level of consumer confidence, excessive municipal fees and high interest and construction costs.

To encourage some of these projects to get underway, Vancouver recently agreed to a myriad of measures that include reductions in development fees and engineering requirements, and deferred payments of fees.

I agree with this approach, since fees charged to condominium developers are usually passed on to new homeowners. It seems misguided to expect those who do not own homes to finance the costs of growth, rather than those who already own homes. Especially since based on 2021 Census data analyzed by SFU’s Andy Yan, nearly 50 per cent of Vancouver homeowners have no mortgage.

While condominium living offers many benefits, people moving out of these mortgage-free single-family houses are often apprehensive about moving into a development that might be run by a strata council whose president may have wanted to be prime minister of Canada but ended up overseeing eighteen townhouses.

For these reasons, I have been urging governments to make it easier to build ‘fee-simple,’ individually owned townhouses as an alternative to condominium townhouses. Although commonplace in Toronto and elsewhere around the world, they are rarely developed here.

The same applies to duplexes. Many people buy a duplex without realizing they are buying into a strata development. Even though it is made up of only two strata lots, the owners are required to abide by the rules and regulations of the Strata Property Act.

There is a ‘fee-simple’ alternative to the duplex — a ‘semi-detached’ house — one of the most common forms of housing in the U.K. and elsewhere around the world. But like fee-simple townhouses, they will not be built here until municipalities make it easier to subdivide properties into smaller lots and establish reduced permit and hook-up fees.

Now that the provincial government is aggressively mandating small-scale, multi-unit housing throughout the province, fee-simple townhouses and semi-detached homes could be attractive alternatives to strata-titled four- and six-unit multiplexes.

Although fee-simple townhouses did not become popular in 2025, another type of housing which I have often promoted in these year-end columns did finally gain popularity. I refer to factory-built modular housing which was recognized by Prime Minister Mark Carney as an effective way to build new homes.

While we will not likely see the 4,000 modular home starts promised by the Prime Minister, I agree with him and federal Housing Minister Gregor Robertson that factory production offers many benefits in terms of construction quality, speed of erection and cost effectiveness.

I would like to conclude with something completely different.

Last year, several reports surfaced linking reduced fertility rates to a lack of suitably designed and affordable family housing. The result was that Canada’s fertility rate hit a new record low of 1.25 children per woman. This did not surprise me.

For years, young couples have told me they were not having children because they could not afford family friendly two- or three-bedroom apartments. While a house with a basement mortgage-helper would be perfect, that was completely out of their price range.

To address this concern, twenty-five years ago during the planning of SFU’s UniverCity community, I proposed designing apartments with a second or third bedroom with its own door to the corridor that could serve as a basement suite equivalent.

Initially, the suite could be rented out as a mortgage-helper. Over time, as the family grew, it would revert to a second or third bedroom.

Fortunately, the City of Burnaby agreed to change its zoning so that a percentage of the apartments could include these lock-off suites.

Former Tyee journalist Monte Paulsen, who sadly died in 2024, called them ‘basement suites-in-the-sky’ and they have subsequently become quite popular. An increasing number of municipalities now allow them.

In 2026, it is my hope that more developers will consider incorporating lock-off suites in their apartment buildings, especially since lenders now recognize the rental income when determining mortgage amounts. This could allow more households to enjoy future holiday seasons with their children.

On this happy note, my best wishes for a healthy and prosperous 2026.

Michael Geller FCIP, RPP, MLAI, Ret. Architect AIBC is a Vancouver-based planner and real estate consultant. He also serves on SFU’s adjunct faculty. You can reach him at geller@sfu.ca and find his blog at www.gellersworldtravel.blogspot.com.