Is it time to bring back market 'equity' Cooperative Housing?

Earlier this week, John Mackie wrote an article about a waterfront apartment for sale without a requirement for property transfer tax. Why? Because it had an 'unusual ownership structure'. What was its structure, you ask? It was a cooperative (or coop), not a condominium. You can read John's story here. https://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/a-waterfront-view-with-a-quirk-no-property-transfer-tax#:~:text=Ocean%20Towers%20isn't%20a,to%20purchasing%20a%20strata%20property.

The False Creek Coop is one of the many government subsidized housing cooperatives with which I was involved as Program Manager-Social Housing for CMHC in the 1970s

Cooperative Housing  Most people don't understand cooperative housing. They assume it is a form of low-income housing. While most coops around Metro are in fact government subsidized developments occupied by predominantly lower income households, cooperative ownership is simply a form of tenure for a building with multiple housing units accommodating both low or high income households. In New York, coops are often associated with the highest income households. For example, The Dakota where John Lennon lived was a cooperative.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dakota

The Dakota in New York, one of the most exclusive apartment buildings in America

There are numerous differences between a coop and condo. However, the key difference is that in a condominium you have ownership of your individual unit and an undivided share in all the common spaces in the building. You also have a right to participate in the collective governance of the private and common property.

In a co-op, you own shares in a company that owns the building. Consequently, as a co-op owner, you don't own the unit itself. But your shares are equal to the value of your unit, relative to the value of total building.  A good summary can be found here. https://www.rvlaw.ca/co-operatives-and-how-they-differ-from-condominiums/

An example of an older cooperative built in 1947, that recently made way for a new condominium development.

Cooperatives were common in Vancouver before condominium legislation was first introduced during the 1960s. In fact, it was the primary way of 'owning' an apartment, as distinct from renting. The first condominium sale in Canada was in 1967 in Ottawa https://knewresearch.com/a-glimpse-into-history-the-first-condo-ever-sold-in-canada/ While I didn't come to Vancouver until 1974, I'm told that condominium tenure was not popular when first allowed. It took a number of years before it became acceptable. 

Since the introduction of condominium tenure in BC I am not aware of any new market equity (that is non-government subsidized) cooperatives being developed in BC. However, as I watch the accumulation of government taxes and changing rules and regulations affecting condominiums, I think it might make sense, in limited instances, to bring back this form of tenure as an alternative to a condominium.

For one thing, and this may upset some of you, cooperative boards unlike strata councils, can decide who gets to live in their building. If they don't want renters or households with children or pets, they don't have to allow them. In fact, cooperatives can be quite selective in deciding who gets to live in the building. I once was asked to write a letter of reference on behalf of a friend who wanted to buy into one of Vancouver's remaining cooperatives occupying a valuable piece of land in Shaughnessy.

Another consideration is the increasing number of taxes that apply to condominium units but do not apply to dwellings within a coop. In addition to no property transfer tax, Empty Home and Speculation and Vacancy Taxes do not apply to units within a coop. The Foreign Buyers Tax does not apply either.

Each year, the Vancouver Sun invites me to write an 'outlook' column on what to expect in the coming year. My columns are often a mix of predictions and aspirations. In my January 2023 column, I wrote that for various reasons, we might start to see a renewed interest in cooperative housing. https://vancouversun.com/homes/metro-vancouver-real-estate-commentator-michael-geller-reflects-on-past-predictions-looks-to-the-future.  Here's an excerpt:

"The combined impact of the prohibition on rental and age restrictions, along with expanded or increased provincial and municipal speculation and vacancy taxes and the federal government’s forthcoming underused housing tax (UHT), might have a surprising, unanticipated consequence.

Prior to the introduction of strata-title legislation, the most usual form of apartment ownership in B.C. was the housing co-operative. Unlike a condominium, where one owns the apartment and a percentage of the common area, in a co-operative, one owns a share in a corporation that owns the building. The share is associated with a particular unit.

In recent years, co-operatives have been developed for lower-income households, usually with government subsidies. However, in the future, some higher-income households may find a New York-style co-op more appealing than a condominium since municipal, provincial, and federal speculation and vacancy taxes will not apply. B.C.’s property transfer tax and companion foreign-buyers tax will also generally not apply. Furthermore, co-ops can independently impose additional rules and restrictions, including who can live in the building."

While I do not expect cooperatives to ever replace condominiums, I think it will make senses for some enterprising developers to initiate new housing cooperatives, especially for people who like the idea of restricting who can live in their buildings and don't need large mortgages. These developments should be particularly appealing to those wanting second homes in British Columbia, including foreign buyers. While governments will no doubt immediately start to explore how they can impose their various vacancy taxes on these homes, it might not be possible without significant legislative changes.

If I were a younger man, I would most definitely initiate a new housing cooperative for all of the above reasons. But instead, I will watch with interest and be delighted to assist anyone who does decide to try.

Thanks John Mackie for inspiring me to resume the conversation.

Some More Musings on Property Taxation Globe and Mail January 27, 2024

In June 2014, I wrote my very first Vancouver Courier column. I recall it well since it upset many of my neighbours. That's because I live in Vancouver's Southlands neighbourhood where many residents live in very expensive homes on large acreage lots. I'm not one of them. I live in what my next door neighbour once described as the poor part of Southlands. 

The column, which you will find below, addressed a provision in the property assessment system which allows some homeowners to significantly reduce their property taxes by growing and selling vegetables on a small portion of their lot and then applying for Farm Classification. 

While it is perfectly legal, it seemed wrong to me ten years ago that by selling $2500 worth of vegetables grown on a portion of the property, such dramatic tax savings could be achieved. And I still think it is wrong, which is why I mentioned it to the Globe and Mail's Kerry Gold when we were discussing another concern I have with BC Assessment's classifications; namely, there is only one residential classification (other than Supportive Housing) and so all housing types are subject to the same mill rate. As a result a $2.5 million suburban house pays the same taxes as a $2.5 million downtown highrise apartment, even though one requires far more infrastructure, or uses far few services (eg: garbage collection) than the other.

My proposal? For BC Assessment to create two residential classifications - one for single-family properties and one for multi-family. This isn't perfect, I know. But it could be more equitable, especially at a time when we are trying to encourage more multi-family sustainable living. 

Below is Ms. Gold's story from today's Globe and Mail followed by my Courier (now Vancouver is Awesome) column from June 2014) I must add I agree with the comments by Hanni Lammam and Derek Holliday. It is difficult to believe there will be adequate servicing in many low density neighbourhoods soon to be upzoned to four and five FSR which equates to a five or sixfold increase the the amount of development on each property. I also agree with Mr. Holloway that it wasn't necessary to apply Vancouver's multiplex zoning to every neighbourhood in the city, except for the one that could easily accommodate more density, namely Shaughnessy. But that's another story for another day.

Metro Vancouver presented a staff report to its regional planning committee this month that cited several concerns about the province’s new legislation. DARRYL DYCK/THE CANADIAN PRESS

Experts say B.C.’s upzoning results are highly uncertain                     KERRY GOLD SPECIAL TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL

One of the biggest questions going into 2024 is how the B.C. government’s new legislation to significantly boost density will play out, and it’s a question on a lot of minds.

Metro Vancouver presented a staff report to its regional planning committee this month that cited several concerns about the province’s new legislation, which will “result in significant and historic changes to the planning framework for British Columbia.”

Municipalities are now required to allow multiunit homes on single-family lots. The province has also set new height and density minimums around transit hubs. The report was authored by deputy chief administrative officer for policy and planning Heather McNeil and deputy general manager for regional planning and housing development Jonathan Coté. It includes concerns about sidelining carefully crafted local area plans for measured growth in areas that do not yet have transit or the infrastructure to accommodate significant density.

The “blanket approach,” the report says, “could result in a greater density of housing in parts of the region that are more car dependent.”

In other words, the result could be more sprawl. The report also cites the challenge of needing to fast-track upgrades to schools, emergency services, and transportation.

Development industry members are also concerned about the blanket requirement for minimum tower heights of up to 20 storeys around rapid transit stations and 12 storeys around bus exchanges, many of which are surrounded by detached houses. It’s not just a question of height, but floor space ratio, which is the entire floor area allowed in relation to the size of the lot. A Vancouver detached house with basement suite and laneway house typically had an FSR of 0.86, which meant the total floor space could be 86 per cent of the lot size. The new multiplex zoning allows an FSR of 1.0, or a building as big as the lot size. With the new transit-oriented development legislation, a building within 200 metres of a bus loop, for example, can be 12 storeys high with a floor space ratio of 4, or four times the size of the lot. In other words, the buildings are going to be a lot bigger, which could have implications for setbacks and green space. It remains to be seen.

Developer Hani Lammam, executive vice-president of the Cressey Development Group, says he’s seen his own house, a 1905 heritage home near the King Edward SkyTrain station, greatly upzoned. He wonders how that will play out in terms of heritage house protections and the need for new infrastructure and associated costs. As well, the new legislation removes minimum parking requirements. He applauds any policies that add density, but he said it also seems like “all gloves are off,” in terms of pushing density into areas not equipped for it.

“At my house, you have an outright 4 FSR right now. Is that what it is? Because that’s how it reads. I don’t think it’s right. If it is, then fantastic. I won the lottery. But I don’t think that’s going to be the case.

“Let’s talk about this transit-oriented development regulation,” says Mr. Lammam. “Guess what, the house that I live in is now 4 FSR and 20 storeys or something … maybe 12? Okay, that’s nonsense, because I don’t think that’s going to be allowed. I just can’t imagine. … What happens to the heritage and character, all that stuff? Do we just throw that out the window? I don’t understand. I think it’s crazy. And what comes with that? Where are the strings, because there will be strings attached, I suspect. We will have to pay for more infrastructure now, water and sewer capacity. And all this is without parking, apparently.

“There are a lot of implications on these neighbourhoods that are supposed to accommodate all this density that are not designed to accommodate this density. So, nobody knows. I think there will be a bit of a stalemate again while we see how these municipalities react to these provincial regulations.

“It’s going to take time, and it could be years in the making. It’s not like overnight we rebuild everything. But it does mean, from a long-range planning perspective, they’ve changed the goalposts,” said Mr. Lammam.

Real estate consultant and commentator Michael Geller is known for offering ideas on housing policies, some of which have been implemented by government. One of his newer ideas is the adoption of a two-tier tax system that puts detached houses in a higher bracket than attached homes, such as condos and duplexes. The idea arose when he realized he was paying the same taxes on his Coal Harbour condo as his west-side house.

Mr. Geller argues that a lower rate for multifamily homes could incentivize the redevelopment of single-family properties into multifamily multiplexes. Vancouver City Council last year also voted to upzone most single-family areas up to six units per lot.

“This idea does make sense, especially since the province wants to encourage the redevelopment of single-family lots with multiple units,” said Mr. Geller. “What better way to reinforce the idea than to increase the taxes on a lot when it is used solely for single-family dwellings – albeit with a possible basement suite and or coach house? And decrease the tax by having a lower mill rate on the same lot if used for three to six dwellings?”

He also likes the idea in principle because he sees unfairness as to how a lot of single-family homes are taxed, such as wealthy people who live on agricultural land reserves, taxed as farmland.

“I live in Southlands, and I am surrounded by people who live in $25-million houses and some of them pay less property tax than you do. That’s because they are growing $2,000 worth of vegetables on a portion of their large lots.”

The Ministry of Housing responded to inquiries by e-mail, saying that local councils set property tax rates and B.C. already has nine property classifications. As well, houses are already taxed at higher values and are paying a higher share of tax. The idea of a two-tiered residential assessment wasn’t being considered, said Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon.

“We will continue taking action to get more homes built faster for people,” he said.

Derek Holloway is a retired BC Assessment appraiser who handled a lot of appeals from property owners. He says the upzoning will have the effect of increasing land values. He cites criticism of the Auckland, New Zealand single-family house upzoning, which some academics say resulted in price increases and only modest net housing supply gains.

“As soon as you start seeing sales to developers or small contractors who buy a single-family lot on a Kitsilano lot that is 50 by 120 [feet] so they can build four units, they will tear down the old house, build … and move on to the next one. That will drive up the price of the house being sold because it’s taken from a single-family house to a development site, and it will drive values up,” says Mr. Holloway, who was with BC Assessment for 30 years.

“You don’t say, ‘Everyone who owns a home in Vancouver can build three to six units.’ You say, ‘Here’s an enclave where we are going to do that, because it’s beside commercial and transit nodes’, and that stuff. What they did in the old days was upzone to duplex, something like that. And that was a buffer zone between high density and retail and single family. So, they could do that tomorrow. … Upzone small areas, not the whole city.”

Opinion: Putting all your eggs into one bracket (Vancouver Courier June 2014)

July 3 is the deadline by which most Vancouver residents must pay their property taxes. I say most since many residents, me included, have chosen to participate in the provincial government’s low interest Property Tax Deferment Program.

If you are aged 55 or over, or living in a household with children, you, too, may be eligible and should investigate the program.

However, this column is not about people who defer their property taxes. It is about people who avoid paying taxes. But before proceeding, as my accountant often tells me, avoiding taxes is legal; evading taxes is not.

One creative way to avoid property taxes is to convince the B.C. Assessment Authority to reclassify a property from “residential” or “business” to “recreational and non-profit” or “farm” categories.

Although the assessed value may not change, the tax rates for both recreational and non-profit and farm classified properties are significantly lower. Properties with a farm classification also receive a 50 per cent reduction in school taxes.

In my Southlands neighbourhood where most of the properties are in the Agricultural Land Reserve, it is no secret that many properties have sought and obtained farm tax status and consequently pay less in property taxes than some smaller, less valuable properties outside the neighbourhood.

When these properties are actively engaged in agricultural activities, such as a garden nursery, the farm classification may be warranted. However, some grand estates of between two and 10 acres have been classified as farms because they generate $2,500 a year in income from incidental agricultural activities. This can be achieved with a few dozen chickens in a corner of the estate.

Given the tens of thousands of dollars in tax savings that must be borne by other taxpayers, these are very expensive eggs.

Not all Southlands estate owners have sought farm classification. Many are proud of the fact that while they could easily qualify, they pay their fair share of taxes based on their residential classification.

It is not just Southlands property owners who are playing this game. Earlier this year, Scott Bowden of Colliers, a recognized expert in the field of property taxation, presented a report to the Metro Vancouver Board of Directors.

He noted tax-avoiding landowners are offering free pasture to cows and renting llamas in a bid to achieve farm status. In some instances, the property owners reduced their taxes by up to 90 per cent and more.

Ironically there are some farmers who will not be able to achieve farm status, namely commercial medical marijuana growers. Recently the provincial government created a new business classification for these facilities given the potential loss in taxes.

To appreciate the tax ramifications, if a $2.1-million, 25,000-square-foot warehouse on a one-acre industrial property in Richmond was allowed to get farm tax status for growing marijuana, it would pay just $395 in annual taxes — 99 per cent less than the $33,100 a comparable business would pay.

While commercial marijuana growers will not get a tax break, owners of vacant sites such as the corner of Davie and Burrard will continue to obtain significant tax savings by allowing their properties to be used for agricultural purposes, namely community gardens.

That is because under our property tax system, the province has agreed to reclassify these properties from “business” to “recreational and non-profit” as long as they are used for growing vegetables and similar purposes.

Since the tax savings for the owner can be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars each year, property owners are eager to allow their land to be used as a temporary park or community garden. I would add the reason their taxes are so high is that vacant land zoned for commercial uses is often unfairly taxed.

Since I and other taxpayers must make up the loss in taxes, I am not so enthusiastic about community gardens as an interim use in order to change the tax classification. I would prefer revisions to our property tax system to address its many inequities.

Until that happens, community gardeners will continue to grow some very expensive tomatoes at the corner of Davie and Burrard.

michaelarthurgeller@gmail.com
twitter.com/michaelgeller

Vancouver Sun - Metro Vancouver Population to Hit Three Million - January 20, 2024

For many reasons, the Vancouver Sun's John Mackie is one of my favourite journalists. I appreciate his interest in the history of the city and I always look forward to his Saturday historical accounts. He's also a delightful guy to talk with. So I was pleased when he called this week to ask what I thought about Vancouver's population reaching three million this summer. 

My first thought was to tell him about Jas Johal's special program on CKNW at the end of last year titled 'The Next Million' which examined how Vancouver is going to manage going from three million to four million residents. So that was how I started our discussion. Here's the article that appeared in today's paper.

Metro Vancouver will top three million residents by July 1, according to a population projection by B.C. Stats.

Hitting three million is a milestone for the region, which stretches from Lions Bay to Langley and includes 23 municipalities. But planner/real estate consultant Michael Geller says it isn’t that big in a deal, in and of itself.

"Going from 2.9 to 3.0 million to my mind is not that significant," said Geller. "But how we accommodate the next million, that's significant." The provincial government has already taken a dramatic step with its so-called density legislation, which allows several units on former single-family lots and much higher density around “transit-oriented development” sites near SkyTrain stations and bus loops.

“But under the provincial proposal they’re now talking about significantly higher buildings, at significantly higher densities.“If you need an illustration, just take the intersection of Dunbar and 41st, which is basically surrounded by single family houses and two-storey commercial buildings,” said Geller.

“It’s a bus loop rather than a SkyTrain, but they’re (still) talking about 12 storey buildings, what they call a floor space ratio of four, which is sort of six times the current (zoning).

“The question is, what kind of sewer and water capacity do we have to accommodate that?”
Putting in the infrastructure will be expensive, but necessary.

“I think the key thing is the rate of change and the pace of development,” said Geller.

“To a certain agree, the thought of dramatically increasing the density is a bit overwhelming. (But) it won’t happen if the sewer and water capacity isn’t there.”

Planner Andy Yan said one of the big questions with Metro Vancouver’s population boom is where people will live.

“The issue isn’t just the number (of residents), it’s how is it distributed throughout the region,” said Yan, director of the City Program at Simon Fraser University.

“Some people think (growth) should all be piled into the city of Vancouver. But if you look at what is probably the most sustainable, the most equitable means of development, it is actually spread out throughout the region, in terms of the regional growth strategy.

“Vancouver is just part of a constellation of communities throughout the region.”

B.C. Stats hasn’t done a press release about Metro reaching three million — the official release won’t be until July 1. But if you look at the “population app” on the B.C. Stats website, it projects it will be 3,021,372 on July 1. This is up from 2.935 million on July 1, 2023.

Metro hit one million residents in 1970 and two million in 1999. It took another 25 years to reach three million. B.C. Stats projects Metro will hit four million in 2041, which is in 17 years.

According to the projection, Vancouver is still the largest city in the region, with an estimated population of 737,216 in 2024, up from 722,014 in 2023.

But Surrey is catching up, with an estimated 2024 population of 684,485, up from 659,126 in 2023. If the population projections by B.C. Stats are right, Surrey will surpass Vancouver in population in 2029, when Surrey’s estimated population will be 785,619 and Vancouver will be 780,075.

Yan notes that Surrey is three times the physical size of Vancouver, so it makes sense Surrey will soon have Metro’s largest population. Physically, the city of Vancouver is only four per cent of Metro, but has over 24 per cent of the population. But Vancouver’s share of the population has been declining as the Metro population grows: In 1971 it was 42 per cent.

According to the B.C. Stats projections, Burnaby will have 286,086 residents by July 1, followed by Richmond at 233,999. Coquitlam will have a population of 174,291, the District of Langley 153,360, and Delta 118,320.

Maple Ridge is projected to have 102,450 people, the District of North Vancouver will have 96,647, and New Westminster 91,167. Port Coquitlam will be 68,265, the City of North Vancouver will be 66,729, and West Vancouver 46,743

Port Moody’s population will rise to 40,867, the City of Langley will be 32,259, White Rock will be 22,623 and Pitt Meadows 21,473. There will also be 34,474 people living in “unincorporated” areas in Metro Vancouver.

The smallest communities in Metro are Bowen Island, with 4,265 residents, Anmore with 2,586, Lions Bay with 1,338, and Belcarra with 729.

Cities near, but outside Metro, continue to grow as well. Abbotsford is projected to have a population of 180,324, Chilliwack 103,468, and Squamish 25,370.

The total population in British Columbia is projected to be 5,646,803 on July 1, up from 5,490,376 in 2023. The provincial population is projected to top six million in 2028, and seven million in 2038.

jmackie@postmedia.com

Downtown Vancouver, B.C. as seen from city hall on Sept. 28, 2023. PHOTO BY JASON PAYNE /PNG

Storeys.Com article by Kerry Gold on What Might Happen in Real Estate in 2024

 

Thanks to Vancouver Journalist Kerry Gold for deciding to write about my 2023 Year-end Holiday Greeting Card and inviting me to offer some additonal thoughts on what might happen in the year ahead. Here is her Storeys.Com article

Predicting what lies ahead for the year, whether it’s trends or prices, is a matter of knowing what factors are at play, including the economy and government policies.

As a developer, real estate consultant, planner, retired architect and former Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation official, Michael Geller has about 50 years of experience behind him. Each year he puts out an annual holiday card with a list of housing ideas regarding policy changes that could generate better design, more efficiency and affordability.

“I call them predictions and sometimes they are aspirational,” says Geller.

Several of Geller’s recommendations from 2021 and 2022 ended up as new provincial legislation in 2023, including the call for “missing middle” multiplex housing on single-family lots, reducing parking requirements, streamlining the approvals process at city hall, eliminating the need for so many public hearings, reducing the number of rezonings and overhauling the community amenity contributions that developers must pay when they seek a rezoning. Through a series of sweeping housing policy reforms, the Province enacted these measures in some way, as part of an all-encompassing housing program last year.

This year, he’s hoping his batch of ideas for 2024 also catches the provincial government’s attention.

He applauds the Province’s new fixed amenity cost charges, which replace the negotiated community amenity contributions (CACs) and bring certainty to projects; however, Vancouver’s fees are still much higher than those in Toronto and Montreal. Such costs are transferred to new buyers. Another recommendation is that the levels of government stop seeking massive building density to generate revenues.

“I really think we need to reconsider trying to generate revenues at the municipal level by almost encouraging people to build larger buildings so the municipalities can then collect more CACs,” he says.

“People think, ‘Oh if you allow a bigger building it will be more affordable.’ Well, some will be, but it doesn’t work that way.”

If a building gets upzoned from a floor space ratio of 2 to 4, for example, that re-sets the price of the land, he says. From thereon, a developer will pay more for the site because of that added density.

“Because at the end of the day, you go to the butcher and buy steak by the pound and developers buy property by the square foot.”

He also calls for a two-tier system of taxing residential properties so that multi-family units are taxed at a lower rate than detached houses. He’d like to see housing mixed with light industrial to open up industrial land. He forecasts that intergenerational home sharing will become a huge trend this year with several home-sharing platforms already underway, such as Common.com, Nesterly, Sparrow Share, HomeSharingBC.ca and SpacesShared, to name a few.

“You watch, that will eventually become a big story,” says Geller, who’ll be speaking on the topic at an upcoming Toronto housing conference. “When I was at university and when I had my first job, I shared accommodation…. It’s kind of like WeWork concept but applied to residential accommodation.”

His other ideas include policy that makes it easier to incorporate highly efficient manufactured housing into building design, and approvals for individually owned rowhouses (called fee-simple). As well, he’d like to see cities offer density bonuses to protect character houses that are vulnerable to redevelopment, especially with multiplexes now approved in single-family zones.

Vancouver realtor and investor Bryan Yan enjoys making predictions and for the last several years, his predictions have turned out accurate by year’s end.

In 2021, he predicted that detached house prices would go up in Metro Vancouver by 15% in 2022, which they did. In 2022, he predicted price drops for early 2023 of 10%, which also played out.

This year, he says, buyers and sellers don’t need predictions — they should just use prime interest rates as a guide.

The overnight rate determines the prime rate for the lenders. He says history has shown that if the Bank of Canada rate comes down, prices will eventually go up. He cites Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver data from 1994 to 2003 that show price increases of detached houses and condos stayed flat when prime interest rates averaged 6.3% over a 10-year span.

But from February 2009 to June 2016, when the prime rate was at 2.66%, the market saw a 147% price increase.

And from January 2020 to May 2022, the prime rate of 2.825% triggered a 43.5% price increase.

Once the rate got up to 6% from May 2022 to January 2023, prices dropped 13.5%.

“When the prime rate is around 3% and below, expect huge returns well over 10-15%. Above a 6% prime rate, expect flat to negative returns. If the prime rate is between 4 and 5%, the prices will appreciate about 5-10%. Currently, the prime rate is a whopping 7.2%.

“Basically, regardless of the foreign buyers’ ban or immigration numbers, it’s interest rates that affect everybody, even though it doesn’t really affect people with assets and a lot of money,” says Yan. “They are buying any time. Based on Statistics Canada, the people who bought 50% of the condos and 13% of houses last year were buying investments, so they are looking at their return on investment… places like downtown Vancouver or Burnaby, the rents are good, they can cover most of the mortgage.”

Royal LePage’s annual market survey forecast for 2024 predicts a modest year-over-year increase of 3% for the Vancouver region, bringing the aggregate price of a home to $1,281,732. A detached house will see a median price increase of 2.5%, at $1,778,785, and the median price of a condo will go up 4%, to $795,808. Meanwhile, Canada will see an aggregate home price increase of 5.5% by the fourth quarter.

Their report says interest rates will guide prices. Higher interest rates will “keep a lid on price appreciation, even as activity picks up.”

Hani Lammam, Executive Vice President of Cressey Development Group, says prices will continue to go up if people can afford to pay those prices, whether it’s monthly rent or mortgage payments.

“The market is pretty quiet right now, but not because of demand,” he says. “There is a lot of demand in the marketplace, but it is a bit of a stalemate, where the purchaser thinks prices will drop and the seller is saying, ‘No, there is a ton of demand and I can wait, I’m in no rush to sell.’ They are not in distress. The reality is, I don’t think prices will come down, I’m just not sure if they will go up.”

His prediction is that it will be a quiet first six months, then the market will start to pick up in the fall by the third or fourth quarter.

“Unique projects will sell, but those generic offerings will struggle,” says Lammam. “There’s a dozen of them in Brentwood. Most of that stuff gets sold to investors, which is not bad. It takes four to five years to build — no end user would buy it. They are bought by investors making a bet that by the time this thing is built, it will be worth more than they bought it for. That’s the motivation. Or ‘I buy at a good price today and rent it and down the road, I make a return.’ So, investors are the ones buying in those big projects and if they can envision an upside, they will continue to buy.”

A Celebration of Life - Dr. Larry Cheevers 1943-2023

Yesterday I attended a Celebration of Life for a man who was truly larger than life. Everyone who knew dentist Larry Cheevers would agree - they don't make them like Larry anymore. Then again, they didn't make many like him in 1943 when he was born. 

As noted in his obituary, Larry was a charismatic presence, gregarious, great company, with an infectious laugh. Larry was Irish, and he made no secret of this. He didn't believe in God and he made no secret of this either. As the Venerable Andrew Pike told the guests, he believed in himself. 

He was a great athlete and he made no secret of this either. He was a star rugby player, swimmer, shot put thrower, squash player, boxer, to name just a few of his sports. In recent years you could find him on the golf course at Point Grey. .You can read his Canadian obituary here: https://vancouversunandprovince.remembering.ca/obituary/laurence-cheevers-1089177693

You can read an Irish obituary in the Galway Advertiser which also reported on his death late last year. https://www.advertiser.ie/galway/article/138853/larry-cheevers

Not only was Larry a successful dentist, he also qualified as the first Forensic Odontologist in the Province, helping to solve over 2500 cases. Chico Newell, a former BC Coroner had several very funy stories to tell. He had a lot more that he wouldn't tell. 

I first met Larry in 1981 when I was working at Narod Developments. We were developing Multiple Unit Residential Units (MURBS) which were an effective way of encouraging private sector investment in rental housing by offering tax write-offs against other income. As a result they were attractive to doctors, dentists, and other high income people.

Shortly after I joined he firm I was given a list of doctors and dentists to call to tell them which units were still available for sale. Initially I told my boss I was reluctant to call them during the day since they would likely be with patients. "Don't be silly" my boss replied. "They are all waiting for your call. This will be the most important call of their week." As a very successful dentist with a large practice at Commercial and Main, Larry bought a lot of MURBs over the years. Over the next 40 plus years we we regularly met and inevitably discussed real estate and city planning, often at the Arbutus Club where he could be found, and on the golf course.

Larry had two accomplished daughters Emma and Melissa. As his daughter Emma told the more than 500 people who filled two large rooms at the Arbutus Club, Larry had no filters. He would often say the most outrageous things. To prove the point, (as if it needed to be proven) she described what it was like arranging their regular Uber trips to the hospital once he could no longer drive. Larry would always sit up front and inevitably wanted to knnow where the driver was from. Then he wanted to know the driver's religion, and by the end of the trip what he did to give pleasure to his wife or girlfriend! 

As you entered one of the rooms, you were confronted by newspaper stories and photos of Larry, some of which had been turned into postcards. Guests were invited to take them home and write a favourite story about Larry and mail it back to the Cheevers Girls in the self-addressed and stamped envelopes provided. Sadly, one of my favourite stories needs to be told, not written out. But suffice it say, it happened on a golf course and involved a lot of profanity. 

At the conclusion of the remarks, a wonderful video of Larry's life prepared by his daughter Melissa was shown. You can watch it here. https://vimeo.com/904324521

Rest in peace Larry (although I'm sure that's not what you want.) While you may be gone, you'll never be forgotten.  

January 14. Sam Geller would have been 112 years old today!

My father was born in Bristol, England on January 14, 1912 and died on July 17 2004. Today he would have been 112. While it is customary in the Jewish religion to remember the anniversary of someone's death or Yahrzeit https://www.myjewishlearning.com/article/yahrzeit-remembering-on-the-anniversary-of-a-death/ by lighting a candle, since birthdays were always celebrated in our family, I have continued to celebrate my parents' birthdays.

Last year, my dad's birth date fell on a Saturday and I decided to sponsor a Kiddush or luncheon in the synagogue to which he once belonged (and to which I now belong). As is customary, the entire congregation was invited along with members of my family. A few of my father's friends and others who knew my father also happened to be there and it turned out to be a most enjoyable event, 

This year, although his birthday fell on a day after the Saturday service, I decided to again make a kiddush. Fortunately, my sister Estelle Paget was able to come in from Victoria and other family members were able to join us, along with a slightly smaller number of my father's friends. After all, many of them are now in their late 80s and 90s. But as my daughter Claire said, he would have been pleased by the turnout, and the variety and quality of food including herring, smoked salmon, various salads and deserts. There was also a birthday cake since another congregant had just turned 80 and she arranged for a large cake to be served to the congregation.

While some people do not have fond memories of their fathers, I am not one of them. I have wonderful memories of my dad. And for good reason. Those who knew my father described him as a true gentleman. He had a marvelous sense of humour and a delightful, stoic outlook on life. Which doesn't mean he didn't enjoy life. On the contrary, Stoics often derive as much joy in life, if not more than Epicureans. 

If you are confused, I suggest you read "A Guide to the Good Life: the Ancient Art of Stoic Joy" by William Irvine  https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/5617966. True Stoics derive pleasure from what they have, rather than what they yearn for!  This was certainly true for my dad who was more interested in people and books than money. 

One of the highlights of my life was going on a Black Sea cruise with my father in 1994. Our destination was Odessa, where my father's family supposedly came from. (I have subsequently learned that it may have been another community in then Russia, now Ukraine.) Odessa is one of Vancouver's sister cities, and when then Mayor Philip Owen heard we were going on this trip, he wrote a lovely letter of introduction to the mayor of Odessa requesting that we be received at City Hall.

Odessa' City Hall. One can only hope it hasn't been damaged by the Russians

A letter of introduction from Philip Owen to the Mayor of Odessa 

My father and me, along with another tourist seeking out family roots in Odessa.

After getting off the ship we went for a tour of the city with another couple whose family also had roots in the area. We visited a severely damaged synagogue and other sights. In the afternoon, we set off for City Hall. Unfortunately the Odessa mayor was in Kiev but we were received by the Deputy Mayor. 

Before leaving Vancouver I attended an event held to mark the 50th anniversary of the Vancouver-Odessa Sister City relationship. I purchased some items to take to Odessa, but never bothered to open them beforehand. During our meeting I presented the deputy mayor a T-shirt and pin to celebrate the anniversary. Imagine my embarrassment when my father showed me the photos he took of the ceremony in the mayor's office!

Presenting a shirt I had purchased at the 50th anniversary celebration of Vancouver and Odessa's Sister City relationship

In case you can't read the shirt it says 'Russia-Canada'

As I watch the nightly news and the ongoing devestation in Ukraine, I often think of the places my father and I visited together and what might have happened to them in recent years. I also think of the Deputy Mayor and what he thought of the T-shirt I gave him. But that's another story for another day!