By
Michael Geller, Special to The Sun December 30, 2015
 |
This laneway house in East Vancouver was
constructed by the Smallworks construction company. It is Michael Geller’s hope
that in 2016, municipalities will permit more laneway and coach houses to be
sold, rather than rented.
Photograph by: Stuart Davis Stuart Davis ,
Vancouver Sun
|
Now that
the new year has arrived, it is tempting to predict what might happen in 2016.
While some things are certain — most of us will not lose weight or exercise as
often as we plan — other things are less certain, especially when it comes to
housing.
Two years
ago, I had the opportunity to share some 2014 predictions with Westcoast Homes
readers. Before I share my predictions for 2016, let’s review how I did. My first
prediction was that alternative forms of housing found in other world cities
were likely to become more popular in Vancouver. An
example was individually-owned “fee-simple” row houses that are not part of
condominiums. My feeling was many people wanting to downsize from a
single-family house would be seeking the amenities of a row house, but were
worried about dealing with a strata council and condominium bylaws.
I also
predicted more municipal planners would promote row housing as a higher-density
form of housing that fits nicely within single-family neighbourhoods. Over the
past two years, row houses have become much more popular throughout Metro
Vancouver and other parts of the province. However, fee-simple row house
developments are not yet as numerous as I predicted. This is
due, in part, to the additional costs of separate water and sewer hookups.
However, there is a way to get around this, and I still maintain we will see
more of this housing in 2016, especially if municipal engineers and lawyers are
co-operative.
Based on
the success of Hollyburn Mews, a small West Vancouver development combining
duplexes and coach houses that I completed in 2013, I predicted 2014 would see
a start on more similar developments. I was wrong. While the
demand for this type of housing increased, most companies were busy building
larger single-family houses and not inclined to embark on the complex rezoning
process required for these forms of housing. However, a number of cities and
municipalities, including Kelowna and West Vancouver, are now actively
promoting alternative housing choices, and hopefully, similar new infill
housing developments will get underway in 2016.
New
heights expected
In 2014,
I predicted highrise buildings would rise higher and higher, especially in
urban centres and near transit stations. I was right. Some new buildings in
Burnaby and Surrey were much taller than I anticipated. Expect to see even
taller buildings approved in 2016 around Metro Vancouver, except in Richmond,
where building heights will continue to be dictated by airport flight paths.
Two years
ago, I predicted more Toronto-style stacked townhomes, especially in locations
appealing to younger buyers. Again, I was right. One just needs to visit East
Vancouver, Burnaby, North Vancouver and a few other locales to see the growing
popularity of this housing form.
If
interest rates rise — and I expect they will marginally in 2016 — more builders
and developers will regard stacked townhouses as an attractive alternative to
conventional low-rise apartments and row houses.
In 2014,
I predicted six-storey wood-frame apartments would become prevalent. Driving
around the region, we can see this is now happening. Six-storey wood-frame
buildings are becoming the new normal, and in the coming year, we can expect
more municipalities to change their zoning bylaws to permit this form of
building, especially along arterial roads.
Following
the success of laneway housing in Vancouver, I predicted other municipalities
would approve coach houses and backyard cottages on single-family properties.
This has proven true in the Districts of North and West Vancouver and other
municipalities. However,
to date most of these homes are rental only. Hopefully, municipalities will
allow more laneway and coach houses to be sold this year, especially since
households are now purchasing these units through complex legal and financing
structures facilitated by the innovative financial institution, Vancity.
A number
of my other 2014 predictions did not come true. We did not see many
European-style mid-rise developments, similar to those being built along Cambie
Street, outside of Vancouver. Nor did we see a renewed interest in 12-storey
buildings similar to those built decades ago in Kerrisdale Village.
Nonetheless,
I will conclude with four new predictions for 2016. As a
result of the 2013 provincial legislation requiring strata councils to
commission depreciation reports on their project’s condition, and a recent
legislative change allowing the dissolution of a condominium with 80 per cent
approval by owners (rather than 100 per cent), we can expect a number of older
condominium projects to be sold to developers in 2016. Many other strata
councils in older projects will start to investigate the feasibility of future
sales.
I also
predict a growing interest in co-ownership housing — a hybrid form of
development that combines the best of co-operative and condominium living — and
smaller housing co-operatives for empty nesters ready to downsize but wanting
to live in a multi-family complex, where they can decide who else gets to move
in.
Architectural
heritage will continue to be a hot topic in 2016. In an effort to stop the
destruction of some of Vancouver’s finest old houses, in 2015 Vancouver city
council approved a Heritage Conservation Area designation for a portion of Shaughnessy. While I
do not expect other conservation areas to be approved in 2016, I do predict
more municipalities will develop heritage policies so they can offer incentives
through heritage revitalization agreements to those prepared to conserve,
rather than destroy, character homes. These
incentives will permit construction of coach houses and infill housing for
sale, and thus create new housing choices for those ready to move up in the
market, and those ready to downsize.
In 2014,
I told Vancouver Sun readers not to hold their breath waiting for a decline in
house prices. While I do not expect the dramatic increases of the past two
years to continue, as long as our region remains attractive and livable, the
continued influx of immigrants and aging baby boomers from other parts of
Canada will temper any significant decline in prices in the coming year.
Once
again, time will tell whether my predictions are right. In the meantime, best
wishes for a happy, healthy and comfortable 2016.
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