Saturday, March 8, 2025
World Obesity Day - March 4, 2025 - The Nature of Things - Weight of the World
Friday, March 7, 2025
We Are in the Midst of a Growing Housing Crisis - Conversations Live - March 4, 2025
On March 4th, Stu McNish of Conversations Live organized a housing panel discussion on what has been happening in Metro Vancouver housing markets over the past year, and what might happen in the year to come. The panel included Metro Chair Mike Hurley, mayor of Burnaby, Bob Rennie, Beau Jarvis, Neil Chrystal and me. The Vancouver Sun was one of the key sponsors.The event has attracted considerable publicity, in part thanks to a shout out by Mark Goodman of The Goodman Report, one of the program sponsors.
Monday, March 3, 2025
REAL ESTATE REPORT - Conversations Live - Stu McNish - March 4th at 6pm
Conversations Live with Stuart McNish is a long form, thoughtful, public affairs dialogue addressing the big topics of our times. A social purpose venture, we are seeking to advance our understanding and seek solutions through dialogue.
For each episode we bring together panels of individuals with deep experience in the month’s topic for a constructive and unscripted conversation, aiming to bring out the full story behind the headlines and soundbites.
Our events are webcast free of charge on the Vancouver Sun and our own website, and available for video replay and as audio podcasts afterwards. Host Stuart McNish is a long-time broadcaster, moderator and interviewer. We hope you will join us for the conversation.
Last February, I was pleased to participate in a housing panel discussion with Housing Minister Ravi Khalon, Coquitlam Mayor Richard Stewart, and representatives of real estate banking, rental housing, and economics.
It is legislation that was supposed to increase certainty of supply, stabilize prices and boost construction. But did it work?"
Thursday, February 27, 2025
Catch-22 and the Economics of Building Rental Housing
Those of you who read Catch-22 will no doubt like me have fond memories of the book. There are two aspects of the book that seem relevant to Vancouver's current rental housing crisis.
The first is how the squadron's Mess Officer, Milo Minderbinder, managed to buy eggs for seven cents, sell them to the mess halls for five cents, and still make a profit. As I recall, he claimed he made money on volume!
The other was Yosarrian who tried to get out of flying more missions. To get out of flying missions he had to prove he was mad. But that didn't work since anyone who wanted to stop flying missions couldn't be mad. Or something like that.
So why is Vancouver's rental market like this. Well, in order to bring down rents, we need to increase the supply of rental housing. But if rents do indeed come down, as they are, in part due to increased supply, then new projects will no longer be financially feasible. So eventually, rents will go back up. Are you following me?
Russil WVong's post reporting on Cressey's numbers.
I thought about this today when I received an email from Russil Wvong. It offered several important observations. The first is that larger suites, which are most needed, are not financially viable. The cost is greater than the rent that can be charged. So they have to be subsidized by smaller suites that we don't really need.
While Cressey's numbers are overly simplified (a small suite is usually more expensive to build on a cost per sq.ft. than a larger suite, etc.) the point being made is absolutely valid.
The other point is that the more we build, the more rents come down, and as a result, we will not be able to build more, until rents rise again. That's why I thought of Catch-22. Read on!
The conclusion is right. We don't need to just reduce rents. We need to reduce costs. And one way to do that is reduce municipal fees. Fortunately, I think municipal politicians and officials are now getting the message. But if they don't, they just need to wait until a few more developments go into foreclosure. It won't take much longer.
Vancouver needs more housing Inside The Cost-Profit Analysis Of Three-Bedroom Units In Metro Vancouver. Howard Chai, Storeys, October 2024. The city of Vancouver requires that market rental projects have a minimum of 35% apartments with two or more bedrooms. Strata projects must have a minimum of 25% apartments with two bedrooms, and a minimum of 10% apartments with three bedrooms. Family Room Policy. The problem is, the 3BR and even 2BR apartments end up being cross-subsidized by the studio and 1BR apartments. This raises the floor for rents on studio and 1BR apartments.
Why don’t market rents for 3BR and 2BR apartments reflect the cost to build them?
As asking rents decline, fewer rental projects are viableOf course the other headwind here is that asking rents are declining. The February 2025 report from rentals.ca says that the asking monthly rent for a 1BR in the city of Vancouver is $2522. For a 2BR, it’s $3433. To keep building rental housing as rents decline, we need to reduce costs. |
Saturday, January 18, 2025
Another story about destruction caused by the Broadway Corridor Plan - Kerry Gold - Globe and Mail, January 17, 2025
Last fall, a company called Havn Development obtained a rezoning permit on behalf of three property owners with a proposal to build a 170-unit rental tower with podium at 2156-2172 W. 14th Ave., between Yew and Arbutus streets. The site currently consists of a detached house and two duplexes, but the city has plans to create a second downtown for the low- to mid-density neighbourhoods within the 500-block Broadway Plan. That includes the approval of high-rise towers in the middle of quiet side streets.
“At this stage, when the fear happens, people just go, ‘Okay, I guess that’s it. I’m out,’” said Ms. Irvine, a retired city hall employee. “I’m not ready. I knew I was going to leave this place, but I assumed I would when I wanted to, and I would sell it to somebody who really wanted to live here. I’m not ready.”
Unlike lower forms of density, the prospect of high-rise towers sends a ripple of fear that is uprooting neighbourhoods. Thousands of renters in the Broadway Plan are being displaced by proposed redevelopment of their older buildings, while homeowners are planning to leave for their own reasons.
The W. 14th Avenue project, critics say, is an example of how the new blockbusting works. It starts when a homeowner decides to cash out to an investor or developer, often at a premium and then neighbours must decide whether to endure years of construction and living adjacent to a tower – or also sell and move on. The resident living near the tower might see their home lose value, unless they too can become part of an assembly. But there is a limit on the number of towers per block, so not everyone can get in on the tower action.
“If by virtue of their location they are not able to sell their property for a similar tower development … the value will go down,” said developer, real estate consultant, urban planner and retired architect Michael Geller, who’s in favour of high-rises but is adamantly opposed to the W. 14th proposal. His concern is as a planner; he lives outside the Broadway Plan.
“If another tower is permitted on the adjacent lots, and their lot could be part of an assembly, it might increase. But generally, a tower next door or even across the lane will likely reduce the value if the property is likely to stay as a single-family house or duplex.”
Ms. Irvine said her street has become more divisive, and she questions if the stress will be worth it. Will truly affordable housing be the result? Havn Development has two other rezonings within the Broadway Plan area, all remarkably similar, but the company has no track record of previous developments, which has made some wonder if they are planning to flip the property.
Adrian Lai, of Havn Developments, said they intend to apply for a development permit this year and follow through with construction. He said they have no intention to sell the site.
”As a developer we have done some smaller scale projects. This would be the first sort of large multifamily project that we have done. But just because we are new doesn’t mean we don’t have the ability to execute,” he said.
”I do sympathize with the people in the neighbourhood – it’s a big change. I’d probably feel the same way if I were in their shoes,” said Mr. Lai. “But we are following the Broadway Plan. We are not doing anything not permitted within the Broadway Plan.”
Council approved the project despite considerable public pushback.
Architect Peter Busby called the proposal “ludicrously out of proportion to the neighbouring buildings,” and “an offence against common sense urban aesthetics.” He argued that the building should be limited to six storeys.
Former Vancouver mayor and B.C. premier Mike Harcourt said the plan is “totally inappropriate and out of scale to this fine old neighbourhood.”
Aimee Gabor is a retired realtor whose lane backs onto the W. 14th proposal, and her daughter lives next door to the tower project. Ms. Gabor and her husband hope to stay in their duplex with their grandchildren down the alley. But she said there’s a sense that busting up the neighbourhoods might be an intended consequence.
“The city wants to increase density, which is wonderful, but they didn’t consult us about what would fit in because they don’t want us to live here. They want us out,” she said. “This is the plan for pushing out the people from this beautiful neighbourhood, to push them out and build another [neighbourhood] like the north side of the False Creek,” she said, referring to the downtown area packed with skyscrapers. “That is what they want to turn Kitsilano into.”
Mr. Geller is calling for a moratorium on side street towers two blocks outside Broadway. The middleman that assembles properties and flips them only drives up prices, which won’t result in affordability for the end-user, he said. Market rents for new purpose-built apartments are about $5.50 per square foot, or $2,200 for a 400-square-foot unit.
He also criticizes the city policy that requires 20 per cent below-market housing because the other 80 per cent usually subsidizes those units, which makes those market-rate rentals expensive and drives up the rents for the area. Politicians are approving poorly designed buildings just to get the 20 per cent below market rental units, he said.
Filmmaker David Fine, an Oscar winner who’s making a documentary about the Broadway Plan displacements, has become a community organizer.
“No one is saying, ‘don’t build towers anywhere,’ but [instead] there should be a process for building out from transit and adding considerable densification in these areas.
“But why are people and their opinions and views completely meaningless to the city?” he asked.
“I think there is a school of thought that says, ‘if we can drive people out of their homes and build towers instead, then the city is better off, because we are building more density, and you can double property taxes.’
“I just feel it’s a cruel way to develop a city … and the social fabric is not being respected in any way.”
Email exchange re: Peter Busby comment.
Another story about 500 Dunsmuir which will be demolished today. John Mackie, Vancouver Sun, January 18, 2025
Should the facade of the Vancouver heritage building at 500 Dunsmuir St. be retained?
The former Dunsmuir Hotel has been vacant since 2013.
By John Mackie Published Jan 16, 2025
Built in 1907, the Dunsmuir Hotel was initially a large tourist hotel and in recent decades has been an SRO. Vacant since 2013, the City of Vancouver has ordered it torn down because it's in bad shape.
The demolition of the red-brick heritage building at 500 Dunsmuir St. is to begin Friday morning, but unlike some earlier cases, the facade of the 115-year-old former hotel will not be preserved.
In the past, the city has encouraged developers to preserve the facades of heritage buildings. The 1901 Terminus Hotel at 36 Water St. was largely destroyed in a fire in 1998, but the facade was saved and propped up by steel beams for several years before it was incorporated into a condo development in 2006.
There’s also a heritage facade project currently being built at 150 Robson St., where a 29-storey condo tower will rise behind the facade of the 1928 Catholic Charities building.
The order to demolish 500 Dunsmuir came from the city’s chief building official due to public safety concerns.
But planner/real estate consultant Michael Geller still believes part of the facade could have been preserved.
“I’m not a chief building official, so it’s dangerous or foolish for me to contradict him,” said Geller. “But going down to the site and looking at it, yes, there were portions of that building that were in terrible shape and the walls were cracking, but the most important facades along Dunsmuir look just fine.”
Civic historian John Atkin said that saving the facade would be tricky, and costly.
“Part of the problem is the design of the building,” said Atkin. “It’s not a single facade across the front, it’s actually three narrow facades with two sides in an end piece … The structural damage is such that the complexity of the steel work to hold that brick work up would mean you wouldn’t be saving anything really worth saving.”
Still, Atkin said the facade could be rebuilt in a new development.
“You would say to (the developer), Holborn, ‘This building is dangerous, you have to demolish it,’ ” he said. “ ‘And a condition of any development permit for anything you do on the site is the reconstruction of the side and front and inset facades as accurately as can be done.’ ”
In an email, the city of Vancouver said “the property owner may be required to incorporate or replicate heritage features as part of their redevelopment plan. The details will depend on what is being proposed by the owner.”
But, it added, “due to concerns about potentially hazardous building materials, the property owner will not be required to retain building materials.”
The pending demolition of 500 Dunsmuir is a case of what heritage activists call “demolition through neglect,” where a building owner lets a building sit vacant for several years, it deteriorates and is torn down.
In this case the building had been vacant since 2013. Holborn owns most of the block around 500 Dunsmuir, including The Bay parkade.
“It’s a heritage building but the company that owned it really wanted to see it demolished so that they could then redevelop the entire block,” said Geller. “And so they simply neglected it, and for reasons that are harder to understand, the city just simply allowed the building to deteriorate.”
Geller said heritage doesn’t seem to be a priority with the city.
“There just doesn’t seem to be the same interest in protecting heritage or protecting views,” he said. “Everybody is simply obsessed with trying to bring down the cost of housing to the point that we’re going to lose all of the things that made Vancouver so special.”
The city said in its statement that it was “disappointed that the owners of Dunsmuir House, a building with significant heritage value, neglected the building to the point where demolition became the only viable option to ensure public safety.”
“Property owners have a responsibility to keep their buildings safe, and allowing a property to fall into disrepair and become a hazard to public safety is unacceptable.”
A message to Holborn CEO Joo Kim Tiah wasn’t returned by deadline.
The company has been at odds with the city and province before. It owns the controversial Little Mountain site, where hundreds of low income residents were displaced and the site is largely vacant, almost two decades after Holborn purchased it.
The block around 500 Dunsmuir is zoned commercial but Holborn has been angling to build residential. The company released architectural renderings with three condo towers on the block in 2020, including one that went up to 900 feet, the equivalent of 90 storeys
But that plan included the retention of 500 Dunsmuir, which started out as the Hotel Dunsmuir tourist hotel, became a Salvation Army men’s shelter called Dunsmuir House and was last rented as an SRO to B.C. Housing in 2013.
After it became vacant, the City of Vancouver tried to collect an empty home tax on the building, which had 187 SRO units in 2013. But The Tyee reported Holborn took the city to court, arguing the city had rezoned it commercial. The city dropped the empty homes tax request.
“You can charge the empty home tax (for residential apartments or houses), but you can have an empty (commercial) building,” said Atkin.
The city can charge a developer a $300,000 per lost SRO unit. If the city charged that for 187 units, it would be $56,100,000.
The Union of B.C. Municipalities has asked the provincial government to allow municipalities to charge a tax for empty buildings.
jmackie@postmedia.com











