Predictions for 2025 - So how are they turning out so far?

As I reflect on all the 'noise' about housing affordability and whether Mark Carney should remove the ban on foreign buyers, I decided to review what I and others were predicting would happen in 2025. In late 2024, I wrote my annual outlook article for the Vancouver Sun https://vancouversun.com/homes/michael-geller-b-c-real-estate-forecast-for-the-year-ahead

In it, I noted that while many are rushing to buy bitcoin at unprecendented prices few are buying presale condominiums. I suggested that in 2025, presale programs will get underway for new condominium projects throughout the region. Smart developers will be designing these projects to appeal primarily to “end-users” rather than investors. 

Well, I was wrong. The market has continued to be so soft that few new presale condominium projects have got underway for either investors or end-users are buying. This has led to considerable discussion as to what needs to be done to spur the market. One consideration raised in another year end conversation with Kerry Gold who writes for the Globe and Mail and Storeys was the impact of the ban on foreign buyers for both the rental and ownership markets. 

"Developer and consultant Michael Geller said there is not one overall market for Vancouver this coming year. Rather, the region will be divided into sub-markets, each with its own unique flavour. Developers will have to respond to diverse sub-markets.

“What applies to East Vancouver may not apply to Burnaby or Richmond,” he said.

Geller said that the experienced players in the development industry will target end-users such as first-time buyers, move-up buyers, and empty-nesters. The investor is no longer the focus of a presale program, he said. The glut of purpose-built rental units coming online, combined with restrictions around foreign buyers and short-term rental platforms has taken the steam out of the investor-driven presale condo market.

And the federal foreign buyer ban, extended to last until 2027, may have had an impact on Vancouver’s pricey luxury market, both rental and ownership.

With price-sensitive demand, Geller said smart developers and architects will get more creative about their designs.

“Consideration should be given to designing projects containing suites that could appeal to those interested in co-purchasing,” he said. “These could include one-bedroom units where the living room can become a separate sleeping room at night and two-bedroom units with two similarly sized ensuite bedrooms.”

Over the next seven months, vigourous discussion continued on how best to address housing affordability and whether removing the ban on foreign buyers might be an important action. This led to what were called 'dueling letters' and other debate, some of which is addressed in the following blogposts.

EXPO 2025 OSAKA - Previous articles and images

This past April, I posted a few blogposts describing my trip to EXPO 2025 Osaka. They can be found here:

https://gellersworldtravel.blogspot.com/2025/04/expo-2025-osaka.html

https://gellersworldtravel.blogspot.com/2025/04/canada-one-of-158-countries-represented.html

https://gellersworldtravel.blogspot.com/2025/05/expo-2025-osaka-more-images-from-around.html

However, for those of you who don't want anymore words from me, just pictures, here are some of my favourite photos taken around the site.

The Chinese Pavilion (left) is one of the most impressive at the fair

No, it's not the great white north. It's regeneration!

Inside the Canadian pavilion there are no words. Visitors are handed an augmented reality tablet which produces some very attractive images

A good way to get an overview of the site is from the 2 km walkway along the top of the circular mass timber structure....supposedly the largest in the world.

This lunch at one of the onsite restaurants was remarkable in that I never had any contact with a human being. I ordered the food from a tablet on the table, and it arrived on a conveyor. When I was finished, the bill appeared on the tablet!

Inside the French pavilion was an interesting display of French fashions.

Inside the USA pavilion there was absolutely no mention of tariffs

Throughout the site there are public art installations. This one comprised old wheelchairs. 

All this greenery was found in the Belgium pavilion

There were a lot of medical innovations on display

 

The Philippines pavilion was most attractive, especially at night

For a brief moment I thought I was back at EXPO 2020 Dubai. When I was there, there was a surprising absence of international visitors.

The Future Cities pavilion takes a look back and forward at the five key stages of Society.

Kawasaki's futuristic horse!

Inside the Chinese pavilion I was greeted by a guide and videographer. I am sure they deleted my comments as soon as the tour was over. But I was impressed!

One of the Chinese pavilion displays told the story of a day in the life of a modern middle-class family

An impressive theatrical production in the main theatre featured this acrobatic individual in a wheelchair

This toilet analyses your stool and provides advance warning of health issues 

This Honda vehicle is steered by gentle body movements

A sea of solar panels surrounding the site helps power the pavilions and transportation, such as this EV bus that derives its power from the road pavement.

EXPO 2025 offers a glimpse of the future. And based on what I saw it is promising!

For more information, check out the many videos that you will find online. Better still, visit Osaka before October 13th and experience the fair yourself. I don't think you'll regret doiing so.

Artificial Intelligence - Canada among least AI Literate Nations

I woke up today to the news that Canada ranks 44 out of 47 countries when it comes to our  Artificial Intelligence (AI) literacy.

https://kpmg.com/ca/en/home/media/press-releases/2025/06/study-shows-canada-among-least-ai-literate-nations.html

This reminded me of my early explorations of Chat GPT and other AI applications. Since I didn't know whether the information I was getting on various topics was correct, I decided to ask about something I knew about - me. 

Below are the results. I am sharing this is to highlight the fact that while much of what I found was correct and oftentimes nicely written, some of the information could best be described as fake news.

So that you can experience AI firsthand, I recommend that you ask it about yourself to see how acccurate it is and whether there also is fake news. (You may need to offer a few prompts about your background to get the picture.)

Result Number 1

Michael Geller is a well-known architect, planner, real estate consultant, and property developer based in Vancouver, Canada. He is the president of The Geller Group, a consulting company that provides strategic planning, real estate development, and urban design services to clients in both the public and private sectors.

In addition to his work as a consultant, Geller is also a frequent media commentator and public speaker on urban planning and development issues. He has been involved in a number of high-profile projects in the Vancouver area, including the redevelopment of the former Woodward's building, the renovation of the historic Orpheum Theatre, and the planning and design of the South False Creek Olympic Village for the 2010 Winter Olympics.

Geller has received numerous awards for his contributions to urban planning and development, including the Distinguished Alumni Award from the UBC School of Community and Regional Planning, the President's Award from the Planning Institute of British Columbia, and the Queen Elizabeth II Diamond Jubilee Medal.

" He has been involved with the renovation of the historic Orpheum Theatre" 

I had absolutely nothing to do with the Orpheum Theatre.

"He has been involved with the planning and design of the South False Creek Olympic Village for the 2010 Winter Olympics."

While I was CMHC's project manager for South Shore False Creek in 1975, I was not involved with the planning and design of the Olympic Village (other than to sign a letter urging the city to pursue midrise, rather than highrise building forms.)

"Geller has received numerous awards for his contributions to urban planning and development, including the Distinguished Alumni Award from the UBC School of Community and Regional Planning, the President's Award from the Planning Institute of British Columbia, and the Queen Elizabeth II Diamond Jubilee Medal."

I did not received any of these awards. I didn't even attend the UBC School of Community and Regional Planning.

Result Number 2

Michael Geller is a Vancouver-based architect, planner, real estate consultant, and property developer. He is well-known for his contributions to urban design and planning, heritage preservation, and affordable housing in Vancouver and throughout British Columbia.

Geller has been involved in numerous projects in the Vancouver area, including the redevelopment of the Woodward's building, the restoration of the Marine Building, and the creation of the False Creek North and South neighbourhoods. He has also served as an adjunct professor at Simon Fraser University, where he taught courses on real estate development, housing policy, and urban design.

In addition to his work in Vancouver, Geller has been involved in planning and development projects in other parts of Canada, as well as in the United States, China, and Israel. He has been recognized for his contributions to the field of architecture and planning, and has received numerous awards and honors for his work.

Geller has been involved in numerous projects in the Vancouver area, including... the restoration of the Marine Building.

I had nothing to do with the Marine Building.

"In addition to his work in Vancouver, Geller has been involved in planning and development projects in other parts of Canada, as well as in the United States, China, and Israel."

I have not done any work in China or Israel.

Result Number 3.

Michael Geller is a prominent figure in urban planning, architecture, and real estate development in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. He is known for his extensive work in the fields of urban design, sustainable development, and affordable housing.

Geller is an architect, planner, and real estate consultant with over 40 years of experience. He has been involved in a wide range of projects in Vancouver and other parts of Canada, including residential, commercial, and mixed-use developments. He has also served as an adjunct professor at Simon Fraser University and the University of British Columbia, where he has taught courses on urban planning and real estate development.

In addition to his work as an architect and planner, Geller has been an advocate for affordable housing and sustainable development. He has been involved in numerous initiatives aimed at increasing the availability of affordable housing in Vancouver, and has been recognized for his efforts in this area.

Geller has received several awards for his contributions to urban planning and design, including the Planning Institute of British Columbia's Lifetime Achievement Award. He is a frequent speaker and commentator on urban planning and real estate development issues, and continues to be an influential figure in the field in Vancouver and beyond.

 

"Geller has received several awards for his contributions to urban planning and design, including the Planning Institute of British Columbia's Lifetime Achievement Award."

I didn't receive this award!

As a result of my early experiences with AI, I have learned to be very cautious when using the AI search results. That said, I think it is an extremely important field and was disappointed to see how low Canada ranks when it comes to being AI literate.

To learn more about AI, (in addition to searching yourself) I highly recommend Yuval Harari's latest book - Nexus. It will both inform and scare the hell out of you!

Vancouver's Proposed Social Housing Initiative - What are they thinking?

Based on my five decades experience developing non-market and market rental and ownership housing in Vancouver, I am concerned recent planning decisions that have been approved and proposed initiatives for Vancouver are so completely inappropriate they will undo all the excellent planning for which our city has been internationally acclaimed over the decades. 

Whether it's the Broadway Plan, the Jericho Plan, or the latest thing to upset me...the proposed Social Housing Initiative, I find it hard to understand why this is seriously being proposed for the reasons set out below. Details of the proposal can be found here:

https://syc.vancouver.ca/projects/social-housing/vancouver-social-housing-initiative-updated-boards.pdf

This map shows the areas where new social, supportive, and cooperative housing projects would be allowed to be built without rezoning. It is a slightly modified version of a previous map that was prevented for community review last year. I must confess, I wasn't aware of this initiative and neither were the planners and other housing 'experts' with whom I regularly communicate. 

Social housing is described as housing to be developed and owned by the public sector or non-profit organizations. It is generally for low income households, but not just low income households. A broader mix is contemplated in some buildings.

The yellow colour indicates the neighbourhoods where buildings up to six storeys could be approved, if the initiative is approved by council. However, the purple colour illustrates the neighbourhoods where towers between 15 and 20 storeys, at a Floor Space Ratio (FSR) of up to 6.0 could be approved. By comparison, many of these areas are currently zoned for single-family and multiplex housing up to 3 storeys in height, at a FSR of 1.0.

Below are more detailed views of the map illustrating where towers might be built on the east and west sides of the city.

From 1974 to 1977 I was the CMHC assistant architect/planner and subsequently the Program Manager- Social Housing and still recall how difficult it often was to get municipal approvals for worthwhile projects around the region. But that said, allowing 15-20 storey buildings along so many local neighbourhood streets throughout the city is most inappropriate. Indeed, it is bordering on the absurd, from an urban design and planning perspective. 

It is also questionable given the desire is to house the currently unhoused requiring supportive services, as well as families with children. I would argue that it is not appropriate to create highrise supportive housing buildings with 150 +/- units. Instead, these buildings should be limited to about 60 units for improved management and community integration.

Similarly, research generally supports lower buildings for households with young children. A six storey limit would be preferable.

To be absolutely clear, I am not opposed to allowing social housing everywhere in the city. On the contrary, I think this is the right thing to do. I also think we should make it much easier for the public sector and non-profits to get approval for new social housing projects. However, as illustrated by this policy, the pendulum is not only swinging in another direction, but much too far in the wrong direction.

This week I discovered a report that was issued by the planning department in January that summarized community response to the proposal. While concerns were expressed about the appropriateness of 15 to 20 storey buildings along neighbourhood streets lined with single-family houses, it was most disingenuous, indeed misleading of the planners to use as a cover photo for the report an image completely devoid of any towers! 

https://syc.vancouver.ca/projects/social-housing/vancouver-social-housing-engagement-report.pdf

Yesterday, I attended a briefing by city staff on the policy, and have requested a roundtable discussion between staff, social housing experts, former city planners and respected urban designers so that we can have a more public discussion about what I consider an ill-conceived proposal before it proceeds much further and is approved by council.

Below is an excerpt from the city web site on how to get involved:

Below is further information about the initiative as set out in the staff presentation.